Process for Conducting Scenario Planning

The scenario planning process will include four major steps: frame choices, develop and evaluate scenarios, refine a single scenario and select a preferred scenario. The final step of the scenario planning process will be for the local governments in the Eugene-Springfield area to cooperatively select a preferred scenario.  While the local governments are required to cooperatively select a preferred scenario, they are not required to implement it.

At each step, the Project Management Team (PMT) will make decisions about how to move forward.  The PMT will consult with elected officials and the public in making interim decisions to direct the scenario planning process. The Eugene City Council, Springfield City Council, Coburg City Council, and Lane County Board of Commissioners will be ultimately responsible for selecting the preferred scenario.  

Step 1: Frame choices

The first step focuses on understanding the likely outcomes of implementing current policies.  This means developing a “reference scenario” which provides a baseline for comparison of alternative scenarios. The Central Lane Scenario Planning effort is considering reference scenarios that consider what the region would look like in 2035 and 2050 if current policies are implemented. 

Step 2: Develop and evaluate scenarios

During the second step, the project team will develop and evaluate scenarios. To develop scenarios, the team will first agree on distinct scenario themes.  Next, the team will populate those themes with specific policies that are likely to meet the greenhouse gas reduction target as well as meeting health, equity and economic development goals.  The PMT will choose a single scenario to advance to the next step using information from GreenSTEP and other evaluation tools.

Step 3: Refine single scenario

In Step 3, the PMT will define realistic implementing actions, refine policies where necessary, and adjust the scenario as needed. Using additional evaluation, the PMT will move toward recommendation of a preferred scenario.

Step 4: Select a preferred scenario

Once the PMT identifies a recommended preferred scenario the technical team will complete a final evaluation of that scenario to support documentation of the expected impacts and benefits associated with the preferred scenario.  This scenario will be presented to the Springfield City Council, Eugene City Council, Coburg City Council and the Lane County Board of Commissioners to meet the legislative mandate to cooperatively select a preferred scenario.

More information about the proposed evaluation goals and measures the State of Oregon has developed information for jurisdictions undertaking scenario planning.  Learn more here.